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Discuss Get ready for $4 gasoline at the "Conception Tips lounge Section" of the Conception Tips - Pregnancy Tips - TTC and Conception Forum; Thought I'd post this for anyone who is interested. With prices at record high, demand and refining ...


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Old 05-07-2007, 02:20 PM
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Default Get ready for $4 gasoline

Thought I'd post this for anyone who is interested.

With prices at record high, demand and refining problems could push them much higher. Any relief in sight?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With gas prices near record highs, experts say $4-a-gallon gasoline is just around the corner.

"I think it's going to happen," said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "Unless things change dramatically, I think we're going to see $4 a gallon."


As pump prices set new record, experts say demand and refining problems could push them to $4 in many parts of the country. Is relief in sight?
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Already, prices in California average $3.48 a gallon, according to the motorist organization AAA. And one service station in San Francisco was charging $3.95, according to GasBuddy.com, a handy site that lists the cheapest and most expensive gas stations by city and state across the country.

Refinery problems and strong demand are the two main reasons sited for the runup. Prices hit a record high of $3.07 a gallon, according to the Lundberg survey released Sunday.

The bad boys of oil
Refinery output in the U.S. has been below normal for several months now, after fires and other accidents combined with longer than normal maintenance shutdowns, hurting production.

Peter Beutel, an oil analyst at consulting firm Cameron Hanover, noted in a recent report that refineries have not operated above 95 percent capacity since Hurricanes Rita and Katrina in 2005. Before 2005, the refineries, clustered around the Gulf coast and badly damaged in the storms, routinely operated at over 95 percent capacity.

Flynn said gasoline stocks have fallen for the past twelve weeks straight and are now at their lowest level for this time of year since 1956.

This all comes just as the nation gears up for the summer driving season, spurred by vacationing families and students out of school.

Meanwhile, demand has shown no sign of easing. That's despite a nationwide average price of $3.07 a gallon for unleaded regular, a record, according to Trilby Lundberg, publisher of the Lundberg Survey of thousands of stations nationwide.

During the winter months gasoline demand grew at about 2.5 percent, according to the Energy Information Agency. Average demand growth is about 1.5 percent.

"More and more communities are going to see gasoline that approaches or exceeds $4 a gallon," John Kilduff, an energy analyst at Man Financial in New York, said recently. "Where we're currently at with prices, that's a given."

Behind high gas prices: The refinery crunch
But not everyone is so convinced.

Wholesale gasoline prices have fallen 20 cents over the last week and prices for gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have lost about the same amount over two weeks, according to Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, which gathers statistics for AAA.

Kloza said gasoline prices as measured by AAA have not yet hit a record, clocking in at $3.04 a gallon Monday, two cents shy of the 2005 record.

"I'm not sure we're going to get there," said Kloza. "I wouldn't be surprised to see our numbers stay the same, or maybe even tick lower."

When inflation is factored in, Lundberg's record of $3.07 still trails the all-time high in March 1981. At the time, gasoline cost $1.35 a gallon - and in today's dollars, that's $3.13 a gallon, said Lundberg.

Also, Americans earn a lot more now than they did in the early 1980s, so by some measures what people spend now on gas is only half of what is used to be.

In 1980, the average American had to work 105 minutes to buy enough gas to drive the average car 100 miles, David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, said in a study last year. By 2006, the average American needed to work only 52 minutes, thanks in part to better fuel efficiency but mostly due to higher wages.

It's also worth noting that while $4 gasoline would be a record for American motorists, in Europe it's common due to high taxes. The average price for a gallon of gas in the Netherlands is over $7, and it's over $6 in many European countries.
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Old 05-07-2007, 02:35 PM
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It is $2.77 here, soon I will need a loan to get back and forth to work.
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Old 05-07-2007, 02:50 PM
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It's pretty close to $4.00 as it is now. I'm sure it will be more than $4.00 for us in no time at all.
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Old 05-07-2007, 02:53 PM
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In Pittsburgh, it's about 2.89 for the cheap stuff.

I did get an email last week or so about not buying gas on May 15. Apparently, they did this a few years ago and gas prices dropped 30 cents the next day. Hey, it's worth a shot. Mark your calendars.
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Old 05-07-2007, 02:55 PM
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WOW
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Old 05-07-2007, 04:04 PM
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I think we paid 3.65 a gallon this weekend. This is crazy!
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Old 05-07-2007, 04:09 PM
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It is very crazy it is about $2.85 here like RAC said. I am so not looking forward to how much it will cost to go on vacation
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Old 05-07-2007, 04:59 PM
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Same here, $2.98 a gallon this weekend. But I saw it was over $3.00 at some gas stations.

I will not buy gas on May 15!
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Old 05-07-2007, 05:12 PM
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I'm not buying gas either on May15th! I've already passed the e-mail on to friends and family
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Old 05-07-2007, 05:24 PM
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it's 3.15 a gallon right now.

tammy - how much is gas in Canada?? just curious with our trip coming up....
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Old 05-07-2007, 08:38 PM
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Lauren - buy your gas in NY before you cross the border. If I remember correctly, gas in Canada is sold by the liter and is more expensive than here.
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Old 05-07-2007, 11:34 PM
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I paid $3.38 today but saw it for as much as $3.55 in Seattle on my way home. Safeway and Costco has the best gas prices here. I just don't understand why the west coast has to pay more than the east?

Lauren/RAC - Yes you buy it by the liter in Canada. You times the price by 4 and it is a little more than a gallon. I think it was $1.19 ish when we were there a few weeks ago. So about $4.76 for a gallon. See we don't have it so bad in the states.
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